Tag:week 4
Posted on: September 29, 2011 12:08 am

Week 4 Predictions, Starts/sits

I think I need to clarify my start and sits of the week a little bit.  I'm not going to be the guy that picks Tom Brady vs the the Arizona Cardinals as my start of the week, nor will I be the guy that tells you to sit Mike Thomas when he's up agianst Darrel Revis.  Those things are obivious.  I take a few risks on these, and that's why they're listed seperatly.  If you chose to follow these two particualr pieces of advice, do so knowing that they're more or less just for S's&G's, my own little bragging rights thing I guess you might say.  Although I do follow my own advice.  It just so happens that I don't own Peterson in any leagues so i wasn't able to bench him last week..but I would've!!  I did start Denarious Moore in every league that I had him though..So at worst, if you do blindly follow my advice, at least you do so knowing that I'm righ thtere with ya!  On with the show!!

Start of the Week  - 
James Starks, RB, GB.  Okay so Starks isn't an "unknown" RB, but he is coming off a really bad game and the hot topic is how great Ryan Grant looked.  Well, Ryan Grant is doubtful at best to play this week, Denver's run defense is worse than its middle of the pack ranking, and Starks will find the endzone at least once in this one.  Redemption can be a very strong motivator.

Sit of the week  -
Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARZ.  I'm guessing no scores, and less than 75 yards vs the GMen
and in a double feature for the sits of the week--
LeSean McCoy, RB PHILLY-I see the Niners doing a decent job of shutting him down, and I like Andy Reid and Mike Vick to really open up the passing attack to silence some of the rumblings that are beginning to boil about this team not being all that and a bag of chips, 8 or less standard fantasy points for Shady

Waiver Pickups -I really need to get these out before Wednesday..I'll try and get better on that..but then again..I have my own leagues to worry about too..lol.
Nate Washington, Victor Cruz, Stevan Ridley, Titus Young, Ernest Graham (PPR ONLY)   I'm not a big beleiver in Torrey Smith.  Sure he'll have a few monster games, he'll also have a lot more weeks like one and two then he will ones like week 3.

Detriot @ Dallas-   
With the Cowboys banged up secondary, its not going to be a shocker to suggest that Stafford and Calvin Johnson are must starts, but what might be is that  I consider Titus Young to be a must start as well.  Newman, perhaps the healthiest Cowboys CB, and hands down their best will be on Calvin most of the time.  Now thats not saying that Calvin will get shut down, but what I'm saying is that it'll leave a hodgepodge of hurt CB's and out of position safeties covering Titus Young. I do not like Jahvid Best's prospects this week facing a rejuvinated Cowboys front seven with Ratlif, Ware and Hill.
The Cowboys success will hinge on Dez Bryants thigh, and that's all there is to it.  THe Lions offense is too high powered to hope that six FG's are going to win this game. Bryant must find a way to get over his little owie and produce.  Romo and Witten are almost always going to be solid though.  Felix Jones doesn't stand much of a chance in this one, and neither do Choice or Murray. If Romo thought the play from his center was bad last week, wait unitl that center looks across the line and sees Suh bearing down on him.

Must Starts- Stafford, Calvin, T. Young, Witten, Hanson, Bailey
Possible starts- Romo, Bryant, L. Robinson, Pettigrew, Burleson
must sits- Best, Felix Jones, Sheffler, Ogletree, both defenses
Game prediction- Lions 34, Cowboys 27

Carolina @ Chicago-
So we've had a week vs a pathetic defense, that resulted in a huge day for Cam, a week vs a great defense that resulted in a well above average day for Cam, and a week in a friggin hurricane that resutled in a bad day for Cam.  Is there anything that we can really get from this heading into week 3?  I'm not really sure.  One thing I do know is that Lovie Smith knows how to coach a defense.  And when facing a team like Carolina I think he'll do a decent enough job of containing Cam and the Panthers this weekend.  I'm selling DWILL and buying JSTEW, and in a holding pattern on Steve Smith, and Greg Olsen.  Speaking of Greg Olsen, I'm sure he's in the coaches ear this week just begging for a few chances to stick it to his old team.
Carolina isn't all that great at getting ot the QB, so maybe Cutler gets out of this one alive.  But that doens't mean his chances of success are all that great.  The Panthers are smack in the middle of the league in passing yards allowed, and the Bears aren't the greatest at getting passing yards.. I'm guesing the Panthers win this one and no Bears receivers are wortha  astart this week.  But Forte should have a nice day both rushing and recieving.  Every RB the Panthers has faced has had a good to great day, Wells, Starks andMJD.
Must Starts- Forte, Greg Olsen, Gould, Mare
Possible starts-Cam Newton, Steve Smith Jay Cutler, JSTEW, Bears DEF/ST, CAR D/ST
Must sits-Hester, Knox, DWILL, Shockey, Lafell
Game prediction- Bears 27, Panthers 17

Buffalo @ Cincy
I'm going to predict a little bit of a let down game here for Buffalo.  Coming off the huge win over the Patriots, I'm not entirely sure that this young Bills team will be all that focused on what should be an easy win vs the Bengals.  Should still have a decent enough day for Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson, along with Steve Johnson, but the score won't be getting as high this week as it has the previous three.
Good Dalton/Green, bad Dalton/Green.  Its beginning to be a running theme for the Begals this year.  And if it holds true, this week would be the good week..but I don't think it will.  Rookies are rookies, and when your entire offense is held together by two of them, things just aren't going to go right very often.  I'm benching nearly every Bengal this week, and every week, until they show at least some signs of consistancy at QB.
Must starts- Fred Jackson
possible starts-Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson, Benson, Greshem, Lindell, 
Must sits- Dalton, Green, D. Nelson, S Chandler, Caldwell, Simpson, Nugent
Game Prediction- Bills 20, Bengals 7

Tennessee @ Cleveland
This will be the last week that I pick CJ2K to finally break out.  If he doesn't, He'll be on my bench until after it finally does happen, if ever.  Much like the Broncos were before last week, the Browns are near the bottom of the league in run defense.  The loss of Britt is either going to kill him, or make him an MVP agian.  It all depends on whether he wants it bad enough.  The way he ran last week suggested that perhaps he's just not into the game this year.  He got paid, and that's the end of it, kind of thing.  Well Chris, its time to put up or shut up and prove that your still worth that cash.  Also look for Nate Washington to have a decent day as well.
Hardesty really manned up last week and showed the Browns brass that they didn't make a mistake taking him the second round last week.  While Hillis will be back and resume his lead back role..it can't be dismissed that all this offseason the Browns staff was telling anyone who would listen that they wanted to reduce Hillis's workload in an attempt to keep him fresh for the end of the year.  Hardesty has shown them enough reason to go forward with that plan.  I'd still rather have Hillis, but Hardesty will eat into enough of his touches to downgrade Hillis just a little bit.
Must starts- Hillis, CJ2K, Washington, TENN D/ST, Bironas
possible starts- Hassleblah, Watson, Dawson
Must sits-McCoy, Hardesty, Cook, Cleveland D/ST
Game Prediction- Titans 20, Browns 13

Minnesota @ K.C.
Peterson, Peterson, and more Peterson.  I even like Harvin in this one..even if it's a limited number of touches for him, i see a TD in his future this weekend.  
Basically have nothing to say about the Cheifs..its just difficult to come up with something new to say every week about a team that's just this bad.  Hopefully something can happen this weekend so that we can have somethign to talk about concerning the Cheifs offense, other than how bad it is.
Must starts- Peterson, Harvin, Vikings D/ST,  Longwell
possible starts- Bowe, Shaincoe
Must sits- Cassel, T. Jones, McCluster, Breaston, Baldwin, Cheifs D/ST, Succop
Game Prediciton- Vikings 27, Chiefs 7

Washington @ StL.
The Rams rush defense is just bad.  Bad, Bad, Bad!!  Almost 40 yards a game worse than the second worst team.  Shanny is licking his chops to get to this game.  But, for us fantasy owners, that might not mean a whole lot.  With Hightower slowly losing time on the field to Helu, I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a split that creates neither of them having a good day, yet the 'Skins as a whole, having  a great day running the ball.  I'd still start Hightower if I had him, but I sure wouldn't be as thrilled as you normally would be with a RB facing a dead last run defense. And I'm also not saying that I'll start Helu, but I'm not putting him on the must sit list either
I do see Bradford having his best game of the young season this weekend.  No idea why really, call it a hunch, but I think Brendan Gibson and MSW can break lose here and have a decent day for Sammy Boy.  The RB situation is still up in the air as of Wednesday, but if SJAX plays, he starts.  No matter what though, I'm not playing Caddilac.

Must Starts- Fred Davis, SJAX, J. Brown, B. Gibson
Possible starts-Hightower, S. Moss, 'Skins D/ST, Gano, MSW, Bradford
Must sits- Grossman, Cooley, Cadilac Williams, Kendricks, Rams D/ST, D Alexander
Game Prediction- Redskins 20, Rams 17

S.F. @ Philly
Vernon Davis finally broke free for 100+ yards last week, and I would expect more of the same here, as PHilly doesn't have a strong LB'ing corp, and Alex Smith would be well advised to stay away from Awesomewaa, Samuel and DRC.  As of now, it looks like Gore is a full go for this game, and Philly's run defnse is nearly as lacking as the Rams' is, so I would expect a full dose of Vitamin Gore in this one, maybe even an overdose if the score can remain close.
Sounds like Mike Vick is a go as well.  But the same can't be said for leading reciever Maclin.  Chances are Maclin misses this one, with Steve Smith drawing most of his targets would be my guess.  Shady McCoy is going to have his first "bad" game of the year, as the Niner's run defense is very solid at less than 63 yards allowed per game.  plus I'm sure Andy Reid and Vick are jsut dying to get this passing offense opened up and rolling.

Must starts- Mike Vick, DJAX, Steve Smith, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore
possible starts-Celek, Eagles D/ST, Henerey, Akers
must sits- McCoy, Alex Smith, Josh Morgan, Crabtree, 49'ers D/ST
Game prediction- Eeagles 24, Niners 14

New Orleans @ Jacksonville
Does it really matter who Drew Brees is throwing to anymore?  It doens't seem to matter whether he has Colston, Moore, Meachem, Henderson, Graham, Sproles, it just doens't make a difference.  Brees is cash money.  Now after Brees, we have some serious fnatasy issues going on.  Who to start?  Henderson, Meachem, Moore??  Well unless you own them all, you start whichever one you do have and hope for the best.  The potential for 150 yards and multiple scores for any of them is too great to ignore, and you never want it to be your guy that gets that kind of production on your bench.  As for the RB's?  I sitll wouldn't touch Ingram or Thomas in my starting lineup, but I would take the chance with Sproles unless I have some really good alternatives.
Jacksonville..it begins and ends with MJD, even more so now than it ever has been in recent memory.  Sure Gabbart hooked up with Mike Thomas for a TD, but Gabbart also looked pretty rough to me and couldn't even throw the ball away before taking a sack in the endzone for a safety.  That's a rookie mistake, expect more than a few more of them.

Must starts- Brees, Meachem, Henderson, Moore, Graham, MJD
Possible starts- Sproles, M. Thomas Saints D/St
Must sits- Gabbart, M. Lewis, ingram, P. Thomas, JAX D/ST

Pittsburgh @ Houston
The Steelers are beginning to be a very frustrating team.  Week 1 was forgivable vs the Ravens, week 2 had a blowout going on so there's somewhat of an excuse for the lackluster day due to calling off the dogs, but last week vs the Colts was just ine-xcusable!  Big Ben needs to have a better day throwing the ball, especailly if Mendenhall and that O-line can't get it going.  And facing the Texans, they aren't going to be able to rely nearly as much on their defense as they did vs the Colts.  Expect Big Ben to be attacking early and often to Wallace and Brown/Sanders.
Sounds like Foster will be a go this week, but it also sounds like they'll be easing him back in, I wouldn't expect more than 15 touches for Foster this week.  making both he and Tate pretty much worthless to fantasy owners.  Of course, you Tate owners out there can always hope for yet another setback in Foster's "anti-awesomeness" levels.  The big duel will be Andre Johnson vs the Steelers secondary..a battle I expect Andre to win more often than not.  The only question will be how long Schuab will be allowed to hang in the pocket.

Must starts- Big Ben, Wallace, Suisham, Andre Johnson, Rackers
Possible starts- Mendenhall, Foster, Tate, Schuab, K. Walters, A. Brown
Must sits-Ward, H. Miller, PITT D/ST, Texans D/ST, J. Jones, Owen Daniels
Game prediction-Steelers 38, Texans 31

***Afternoon Games***

New England @ Oakland
Tom Brady is currently leading a passing attack that is AVERAGING 100 yards more per game than the second place team.  There's nothing in the Oakland secondary that is going to stop this attack, there might not be anyhting that will even slow it down.  Is there a chance for a monsoon in the Bay area this weekend?  'Cuz that's about what Oakland will need.  Yikes.  I also see one more baby step in an increased role for Stevan Ridley.  Welker will continue to dominate from the slot, and Branch will see his numbers get back on track as well.  Ocho still Stinkos though.
As great as the New England passing offense is, its pass defense is almost as bad.  If Ford is healthy, this has all the makings of a serious track meat.  Oakland will attempt to run the ball with RDMC and they'll probably find success there, but eventually the Raiders will need to abandon that approach if they hope to stay in this one, and Just as Oakland has no answer for Brady, Welker, Branch, Gronk..New England will similarily not have an answer for Ford and Denarious Moore.  It ouwldn't shock me to see some gimmick plays from teh Raiders involving Marcel reese and or Taiwan Jones either.  Before you brush this off as a homer pick..Buffalo beat New England on its final drive..they also had to have a miracle final drive to beat Oakland, and that's the only game they've lost.  These Raiders just may be for real people.

Must starts- Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Deon Branch, Gronkowski, Jacoby Ford (if he plays), Denarious Moore, RDMC
possible starts-Ridley, Gostkowski, Sebass, DHB (if Ford doesn't play), Jason Campbell, Danny Woodhead
must sits- Patriots D/ST, Raiders D/ST, Ocho Cinco, BJGE, DHB (agian, if Ford plays), Kevin Boss, Michael Bush
Game prediction- Raiders 38, Patriots 35 (out of my 7 losses thus far picking games, I'm 0-2 on the Pats, so why not go out on a limb here??)

New York Giants @ Arizona
Eli had a great day vs the Eagles last week.  Finally showing owners that he wasn't a wasted pick and proving a lot of doubters wrong.  And now he faces the Cardinals, who have been torched by Cam Newton for over 400, Rex Grossman got 'em for nearly 300, and even TJAX found Sidney Rice for well over 100.  I would expect a big day for Nicks here.  With plenty left over for Bradshaw and Jacobs to be start worthy in any league.  Whether its Manning ham or Cruz or both on the field..I don't see the GMen needing to pass enough for them to be efective
Beenie Wells swears up and down he'll be playing this week.  Not sure whether or not to beleive him, but if the starter says he's playing, and your writing a blog on Wednesday, ya kinda gotta go with it right?  regardless..iI see little if anything for any Cardinal's player, including Fitzgerald.
Must starts- Eli, Nicks, Bradhsaw
possible starts- Jacobs, Manningham/Cruz, Wells, L Tynes, J. Feeley
Must sits- Larry Fitzgerald, Kevin Kolb, Andre Roberts, C. Taylor
Game prediction- Giants 28, Cardinals 6

Atlanta @ Seattle
As bad as Seattle is, they haven't really been all that shabby defensively.  Not great by any means, but mediocre.  I would exepct Matt Ryan to have a decent day here, hopefully getting at elast on of his two WR's into the end zone and probably Gonzo again as well.  Turner might get 80 yards..if they ride him hard.
Not suggesting anyone from the 'Hawks vs a very tough Falcons defense.  The talent just isn't there

Must starts- Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Gonzo, ATL D/ST
possible starts- Julio Jones, Turner, Bryant
must sits- TJAX, Sidney Rice, Lynch, Mike Willaims, Seattle D/ST, Hauschka 
Game prediction- Falcons 27, Seahawks 0

Green Bay @ Denver
Two weeks ago, Denver was near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed, then they faced Chris Johnson, and now they're in the middle of the pack?  How does that happen?  Not really sure, but with Ryan Grant likely out, Starks has a real shot at redemption from that poor showing inthe Bears game last week.  I really like Starks this week.  But of course, the main focus of this offense is Aaron Rodgers, Finley, and Jennings.  No further word on whether or not Chump Bailey is going to play in this one.  But it wouldn't really effect my thoughts on it either way.  It's doubtufl that Chump has enough left in the tank to hang with Jennings.
Moreno is likely to return for the Broncos, but all that does is make both he and McGahee pretty much worhtless.  I'd bet on Moreno having the better game here as they'll need to be passing alot to keep up with the Packers.  It will be interesting to see who gets more targets between Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd..we may be witnessing a changing of the guard here in Denver, keep an eye on this one.

Must starts- Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Finley, Starks
possible starts-Moreno, Decker, Lloyd, Orton, Crosby, Prater, GB DEF/ST
must sits- McGahee, Cobb, Driver, Denver D/ST
game prediciton-Green Bay 34 Denver 17

Miami at S.D.
Daniel Thomas will get worked heavy here, Reggie Bush will continue to be the forgotten man, and the Dolphins will waste Marshal's talent once again.  Simple as that.
The 'PHins defense is ranked 30th overall in yards allowed, 30th vs the Pass and 16th vs the run.  Can you guess what I'm expecting from Rivers and VJAX in this one?  Yeah Rivers has had a somewhat slow start, but he is just too good to keep down for very long.  expect to see Mathews continue to grab the brass ring and run with it..took ya long enough Ryan!

Must starts- Rivers, VJAX, Ryan Mathews, SD D/ST, Novak
possible starts- Daniel Thomas, Brandon Marshall, Carpenter
must sits-Henne, R. Bush, Fasano, Hartline, Maimi D/ST
game prediction-  Chargers 27, Dolphins 13

***Sunday Night****

N.Y. Jets @ Baltimore
If the Raiders can put the brakes on pretty much everyone on this team not named Tomlinson..I'm pretty sure the Ravens should be able to as well.  Santonio Holmes may have been the squeaky wheel this week, but going up agans the Ravens isn't going to help him get the ball more often this week.  Shonn Greene has virtually no shot at breakign free form teh Ravens front seven, especailly the way he just runs straight ahead, regardless of whats in front of him.  It's called "vision" Mr Greene, I suggest you try it sometime.Plax could find himself a busy man as the best way to beat the Ravens defenders is to play above them, and Plax is the only guy with the ability to do it.
Torrey Smith, the hot pickup this week.  Sorry but that train stops here, even if Lee Evans is held out for one more week. Torrey Smith isn't going to be beating the Jets like he did the hapless Rams.  Boldin will get shut down as well, leaving Dickson as the man to target as far as recieveres go in Baltimore this week.  Ray Rice will be able to find running room, in both the passing and running game.  The Ravens will lean heavily on this guy, as the defense is going to tell this story all night long on both sides of the ball.

Must starts- Ray Rice, NYJ D/ST, BALT D/ST, Folk, Cundiff
possible starts- Dickson, LT2,  Plaxico Burress, D. Keller
must sits- Flacco, Boldin, Torrey Smith, Lee Evans, S. Holmes, D. Mason.
game prediciton- Ravens 20, Jets 16

*****Monday Night Football******

Indianapolis @ T.B.
I'm guessing the execs at ESPN/Disney are more than a little upset that Peyton Manning isn't going to be here, and that josh Freeman has failed ot improve upon his performance from last year.  This isn't exactly the most thrilling Monday night matchup that we could hope for.

As for Indy, It sure sounds like Curtis Painter will be drawing the start at QB.  That's really only good news for Pierre Garcon.  It was pretty obvious that htose two had been workign together during second string practices as they had some really good timing going.  Depending on how this weeks practice and gameplan goes, maybe he cna get there with Wayne and Clark, but it's doubtful.  And regardless, Painter is still an inexpieranced QB and will make his share of mistakes.  But, if your going from what Collins was..it can't get much worse right?
The Bucs really need to pull their heads out offensively.  Blount has been a somewhat steady performer, but Freeman and Mike Williams have really disappointed.  I'm not really sure that the TB O-line will be able to keep Freeney and Mathis off of Freeman long enough for Willaims to really get going this week either, and they'll be forced to rely primarily on Blount and Winslow. 

Must starts- Blount, Winslow, TB D/ST, Vinaterri
Possible starts- Garcon, Clark, Addai, Freeman, Mike Williams, Colts D/ST, Barth
Must sits- Painter, Wayne, Collie, E. Graham, A. Benn
Game Prediction-in a yawn-fest..Buccaneers 20, Colts 13
Category: Fantasy Football
Tags: week 4
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